Could Larry Hogan Win in Deep-Blue Maryland?

Senate races in Maryland, one of the bluest states in the nation, are rarely competitive.
But the state’s popular former governor, Republican Larry Hogan, is forcing Democrats to spend big in the state as polls show a close race with just weeks until Election Day.
Hogan is running for the against Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, the executive of Prince George’s County, to fill the seat vacated by Sen. Ben Cardin, a Democrat who is retiring. Maryland typically backs Democrats by large margins, but Hogan has a proven ability to outrun other Republicans in the state, having served two terms as governor.
He has cast himself as someone who, if elected, would be an independent voice in Washington, but it’s yet to be seen if his popularity as governor can translate into success in the Senate race. Hogan is more moderate than most Republicans on key issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights and has distanced himself from former President Donald Trump, who is deeply unpopular in Maryland.
Republicans are spending big on the Senate race as they hope to flip Congress’ upper chamber in November. Super PAC Maryland’s Future purchased $18.2 million worth of ad buys across the state on Monday, according to AdImpact data.
Hogan is significantly outrunning his competitor in terms of ad spending. He has purchased $26.3 million worth of future ads, compared to only $3.1 million from Alsobrooks, according to AdImpact.
Still, Alsobrooks has a fundraising advantage over Hogan, according to data from the nonprofit OpenSecrets. She has raised nearly $12.3 million, while Hogan has raised just over $7 million as of the end of June.
Alsobrooks had $3.6 million in cash on hand, while Hogan had $2.6 million on hand at the end of June, according to OpenSecrets.
Despite that advantage, Hogan brought in strong fundraising in the second quarter of 2024, outraising Alsobrooks from April to July. He raised $6.6 million, to Alsobrooks’ $5.7 million, according to The Baltimore Sun.
In a statement to Newsweek, Alsobrooks’ senior adviser Connor Lounsbury said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is “obsessed with flipping Maryland red and taking back the Senate majority for Republicans.”
“That’s why these Republican mega donors are flooding the airwaves here in Maryland. Democrats will defend our Senate majority by electing Angela Alsobrooks,” he said.
Newsweek reached out to Hogan’s campaign for comment via email as well.
Pollster Patrick Gonzales told Newsweek that Hogan has to do a “tightrope walk” to win over independent and Democratic voters, while maintain support from more conservative Republicans, noting he has “done it well so far.”
He will need a sizable group of Democrats to break ranks to support him in November, Gonzales said. If Hogan wins 90 percent of Republicans and 55 percent of independents, he would likely need 30 percent of Democrats to cast their vote for him on Election Day, he said.
There are, however, two key differences between his successful gubernatorial runs and the Senate bid, according to Gonzales.
“They were not presidential elections, and he was running for an executive office, not a legislative office. In 2014 and 2018, there were sufficient Democrats that decided to cross over and say, ‘Yes, I’m going to vote for Larry Hogan to be the governor,'” he said.
“This year we have to see if there are a sufficient number of Democrats who are willing to cross over and say, ‘I’m going to vote for Larry Hogan to be my legislative representative in the United States Senate.”
Recent polls suggest the race will be closer than past Senate races in the state, and is likely to depend on Democratic turnout.
A poll conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies among 820 registered voters from August 24 to August 30 showed Alsbrooks leading Hogan by five points (46 percent to 41 percent).
“Hogan is that one-off politician who’s viewed favorably by Democrats, Republicans, and independents. But he’s up against an opponent who is herself exceptionally popular within her party base. And in Maryland, a unified election day voice from registered Democrats is a very difficult dynamic to overcome,” Gonzales wrote in a synopsis of the poll.
Elsewhere, an Emerson College poll, sponsored by The Hill and Hagerstown-based news station WDVM, found Alsobrooks leading by 7 points (49 percent to 42 percent). It surveyed 890 likely voters on September 12 and September 13.
Other surveys have been even stronger for Alsobrooks. A Morning Consult poll, conducted among 578 likely voters from September 9 to September 18, found Alsbrooks with a 12-point lead (50 percent to 39 percent).
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as “Likely Democrat,” meaning it’s “not considered competitive” but has “the potential to become engaged.”
If Hogan manages to win, it would complicate Democrats’ already-rocky path to holding the Senate.
Currently, Democrats have a single seat majority in the Senate and are all but guaranteed to lose the seat vacated by Joe Manchin in West Virginia.
That means they need to hold every other seat they currently have — an increasingly daunting task as polls show Republican Tim Sheehy leading Montana Democrat Senator Jon Tester— or pull an upset in a state like Florida or Texas, where Republican incumbents are favored.
Maryland flipping to Republicans would mean Democrats would need to win two of the three races in Florida, Montana and Texas.
In 2020, President Joe Biden won Maryland by 33 points, carrying more than 65 percent of the vote compared to former President Donald Trump’s 32 percent.